Sunday, October 26, 2008
The verdict is in: not only is the modern design market still roaring strong, it's still occasionally going batshit crazy. Nearly every Rago lot has sold at the high end of its estimate range or above it; Paul Evans in particular sold like water at an ACL show. The solitary area of weakness, however, was the one that's seen the highest prices escalations at auctions over the past few years: Nakashima. I don't know if the estimates were too high or there was too much of it on hand (nearly 70 lots) or what, but most Nakashima lots sold for well below estimate, with a few right around the low estimate. There were a few exceptions, but overall this was Blue Light Special Day on the Nakashima aisle. The day's biggest Nakashima sale sold within estimate range, at least.
Still, the auction -- the strength of which surpassed even my most bullish estimates -- is solid proof of the fact that design collectors believe in the fundamentals of the market, and that turmoil elsewhere in the economic world has little to no bearing on it.
Still, the auction -- the strength of which surpassed even my most bullish estimates -- is solid proof of the fact that design collectors believe in the fundamentals of the market, and that turmoil elsewhere in the economic world has little to no bearing on it.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Score! Remember the Shay Alkalay Stack I mentioned last week? I didn't want to say anything until things had been finalized, but we've just been approved to start repping Established & Sons, and the Stack will be one of the pieces we'll be carrying on the floor (though the full line will be available via special order). Established does some of the most innovative, avant-garde work in the furniture design field today, and I'm very much looking forward to carrying the line. We don't have an ETA yet as to when the first floor models will arrive, but we're gunning for early December. More info to come. (Btw they are in the process of adjusting prices to reflect the new exchange rates.)
Earlier this week I flew to Philly to check out the preview for Rago's fall auction this weekend (Rago's an hour outside the city on the PA/NJ border). I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that this one could singlehandedly make or break the high-end vintage market for the foreseeable future, in particular the markets for George Nakashima, Harry Bertoia and Paul Evans. Rago has always been the market-maker for all three designers, partially due to their proximity to the Nakashima and Evans studios and their level of access to their best work, and at each of the several Rago auctions I've attended in person, the best pieces have erupted into an all-out bidding war. The problem with this upcoming auction is twofold: a) the obvious economic crisis and b) the fact that much of the heated bidding has been coming from European bidders calling in bids by phone. Not only does Europe have its own economic crisis to contend with, its currencies are plummeting against the dollar, as I noted last week; the pound has fallen from $1.70 to $1.60 just since last week's post. Point being, the US is no longer a bargainfest for Europeans at any level, whether it be purchases at the Gap or $100,000 Bertoia sculptures, and that could very well have a seismic impact on the upcoming auction. Worsening matters still, this is one of the largest auctions in Rago's history -- over 1000 lots over two full days -- and I think it may be the biggest sale of good Nakashima and Evans ever, in terms of total number of lots (and very little of it consists of their semi-mass-produced work for Directional and Widdicomb).
On the plus side, it could prove to be a good buying opportunity for long-term-focused design collectors; on the minus side, nearly all of the Evans/Nakashima/Bertoia pieces are out of my range (and don't fit into our new focus on more moderately priced pieces) even if they sold for the minimum bid of half the low estimate -- which they may not, since I'm sure a lot of the pieces have undisclosed reserve prices that are close to, if not equal to, the low estimate. We shall see.
Earlier this week I flew to Philly to check out the preview for Rago's fall auction this weekend (Rago's an hour outside the city on the PA/NJ border). I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that this one could singlehandedly make or break the high-end vintage market for the foreseeable future, in particular the markets for George Nakashima, Harry Bertoia and Paul Evans. Rago has always been the market-maker for all three designers, partially due to their proximity to the Nakashima and Evans studios and their level of access to their best work, and at each of the several Rago auctions I've attended in person, the best pieces have erupted into an all-out bidding war. The problem with this upcoming auction is twofold: a) the obvious economic crisis and b) the fact that much of the heated bidding has been coming from European bidders calling in bids by phone. Not only does Europe have its own economic crisis to contend with, its currencies are plummeting against the dollar, as I noted last week; the pound has fallen from $1.70 to $1.60 just since last week's post. Point being, the US is no longer a bargainfest for Europeans at any level, whether it be purchases at the Gap or $100,000 Bertoia sculptures, and that could very well have a seismic impact on the upcoming auction. Worsening matters still, this is one of the largest auctions in Rago's history -- over 1000 lots over two full days -- and I think it may be the biggest sale of good Nakashima and Evans ever, in terms of total number of lots (and very little of it consists of their semi-mass-produced work for Directional and Widdicomb).
On the plus side, it could prove to be a good buying opportunity for long-term-focused design collectors; on the minus side, nearly all of the Evans/Nakashima/Bertoia pieces are out of my range (and don't fit into our new focus on more moderately priced pieces) even if they sold for the minimum bid of half the low estimate -- which they may not, since I'm sure a lot of the pieces have undisclosed reserve prices that are close to, if not equal to, the low estimate. We shall see.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
One more from Ethan.
Btw if you're curious what the store looks like, seeing as I haven't really posted many photos of it, here's a recent one taken by the very talented Ethan Stead.
This feels like it's been a freakishly busy week. Auction in Chicago, wedding in San Antonio, two concerts (Spoon and The Magnetic Fields) on consecutive nights, Barkitecture in two days, leaving for Philly in four, and in the middle of it all trying to finally get the gallery's Web site finished and figure out what new inventory we're ordering for the holiday season.
In regards to the latter, my conundrum has been the recent fluctuations in currency values. Case in point: we are currently in talks with a British lighting manufacturer to carry their line. Their US price list, with suggested retail prices in dollars, was set last May. At the time the dollar was nearly $2 to £1. As of this week it's more like $1.70 to £1. The suggested US retail price for one of their lamps is $500. That same lamp, priced for the UK market, is £175, or about $300. Granted, the suggested US price factors in shipping costs and import fees, but that doesn't come close to accounting for a $200 price differential. Same goes for my current objet de lust, the Shay Alkalay Stack drawer made by Established & Sons. Matter in NYC, which to my knowledge is the only US retailer currently selling the Stacks, has the 13-drawer version listed for $6,200. British retailer twentytwentyone has it for £2,644, or around $4,500.
I'm glad the dollar's gained so much strength against the pound and euro -- one of the few positive aspects of the global financial meltdown -- but these European manufacturers can't realistically expect American retailers to continue pricing their products based on inflated currency rates from six months ago, particularly with the economy almost certainly heading into a recession. The good news, at least, is that we're purchasing all of our inventory in the local European currencies, and not every European manufacturer enforces strict suggested retail prices (particularly ones new to the U.S. market - we remain the sole American distributor of BOBdesign (the French company that designed the chandelier that anchors our floor space), for instance, and we're one of the few that carries British brand Thelermont Hupton).
In regards to the latter, my conundrum has been the recent fluctuations in currency values. Case in point: we are currently in talks with a British lighting manufacturer to carry their line. Their US price list, with suggested retail prices in dollars, was set last May. At the time the dollar was nearly $2 to £1. As of this week it's more like $1.70 to £1. The suggested US retail price for one of their lamps is $500. That same lamp, priced for the UK market, is £175, or about $300. Granted, the suggested US price factors in shipping costs and import fees, but that doesn't come close to accounting for a $200 price differential. Same goes for my current objet de lust, the Shay Alkalay Stack drawer made by Established & Sons. Matter in NYC, which to my knowledge is the only US retailer currently selling the Stacks, has the 13-drawer version listed for $6,200. British retailer twentytwentyone has it for £2,644, or around $4,500.
I'm glad the dollar's gained so much strength against the pound and euro -- one of the few positive aspects of the global financial meltdown -- but these European manufacturers can't realistically expect American retailers to continue pricing their products based on inflated currency rates from six months ago, particularly with the economy almost certainly heading into a recession. The good news, at least, is that we're purchasing all of our inventory in the local European currencies, and not every European manufacturer enforces strict suggested retail prices (particularly ones new to the U.S. market - we remain the sole American distributor of BOBdesign (the French company that designed the chandelier that anchors our floor space), for instance, and we're one of the few that carries British brand Thelermont Hupton).
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
Took a quick overnight trip to Chicago Monday and Tuesday for a Wright auction. The $100,000 question on everyone's minds has been to what extent the market turmoil would impact the design-auction market. Based on yesterday's auction results, I'd have to say the design market has become as schizophrenic and completely unpredictable as the stock market, with even some blue chips failing for largely inexplicable reasons.
Things started well enough. Several dozen classic mid-century lots, mainly Eames and Herman Miller, came up for bid, and nearly all of them hit their estimate levels or well exceeded them. The rarest piece of the bunch, a Charles Eames and Eero Saarinen collaboration (which I believe is a one-off piece) sold for $50,400 (this and other figures stated include the 20% buyer's premium); the pre-sale estimate was $15,000-$20,000. An Eames DAR chair -- one that Stephani, the most well-versed expert on Eames work that I know, hadn't ever even *heard* of -- sold for nearly eight times its high estimate of $700, never mind its terrible condition (half-rusted through underneath). A Noguchi "Radio Nurse and Guardian Ear" -- no, I don't have even the foggiest idea what it is, but it looks like a glorified CB-radio mic -- sold for $22,800 on a $3,000-$5,000 estimate.
And then the Nakashima lots came up and ... poof. A Conoid dining table, the type of thing that would've incited a bidding war as little as six months ago, didn't sell. (To be fair, part of the problem here was that the reserve price on the Nakashima pieces appeared to be the low auction estimate. Normally the reserve price is 50% of the low estimate; in some cases it's more like 75%. People were putting in lowball bids on the Nakashima stuff, but no one was willing to pay above the low estimate.) Then four Minguren I tables didn't sell. Slab coffee table, Conoid chair, pedestal table ... none sold. Nakashima is about as blue-chip an investment as it gets, so this turn of events was simply shocking. I think a herd mentality was taking place: no one bid on the first lot or two, and that scared everyone from bidding on the rest. I'll be curious to see what happens at the Rago fall sale in three weeks; Rago typically has by far the most robust Nakashima sales, and they have numerous good pieces available at the upcoming sale. If even Rago can't sell the stuff, we'll know there's a serious problem.
Following that was a litany of grade-A stuff that didn't sell, including a unique Paul Evans Cityscape dining table in a smoky metal I can't recall seeing before; a beautiful Ellsworth Kelly print; a rare Ron Arad flipping chair; then most of the Shiro Kumamata stuff failed to sell. (The lone exception: four beautiful small art pieces, with flowers and butterflies suspended inside a block of flawless glass. I was going to bid on them, but all sold for way above estimate.) Then there was a stupendous flop of some Hugh Newell Jacobsen pieces -- one out of 14 sold -- and flop after flop until the Prouve lots hit. Like Eames buyers, Prouve aficionados are a little fanatical, and all his work sold for well above estimate, except for one overpriced desk. More flops followed, then a rebound with the Arredoluce lamps, all of which went for premiums. After that, still more flops. Even a Wendell Castle piece failed to sell, and he's been hot shit in the auction world lately. In sum though, it was an unabashed disaster, but OTOH it came after the three most tumultuous weeks in American financial history since the Great Depression.
Steph and I bought some great stuff at good prices, however -- there were certainly bargains to be had -- and I look forward to getting them on the floor.
Things started well enough. Several dozen classic mid-century lots, mainly Eames and Herman Miller, came up for bid, and nearly all of them hit their estimate levels or well exceeded them. The rarest piece of the bunch, a Charles Eames and Eero Saarinen collaboration (which I believe is a one-off piece) sold for $50,400 (this and other figures stated include the 20% buyer's premium); the pre-sale estimate was $15,000-$20,000. An Eames DAR chair -- one that Stephani, the most well-versed expert on Eames work that I know, hadn't ever even *heard* of -- sold for nearly eight times its high estimate of $700, never mind its terrible condition (half-rusted through underneath). A Noguchi "Radio Nurse and Guardian Ear" -- no, I don't have even the foggiest idea what it is, but it looks like a glorified CB-radio mic -- sold for $22,800 on a $3,000-$5,000 estimate.
And then the Nakashima lots came up and ... poof. A Conoid dining table, the type of thing that would've incited a bidding war as little as six months ago, didn't sell. (To be fair, part of the problem here was that the reserve price on the Nakashima pieces appeared to be the low auction estimate. Normally the reserve price is 50% of the low estimate; in some cases it's more like 75%. People were putting in lowball bids on the Nakashima stuff, but no one was willing to pay above the low estimate.) Then four Minguren I tables didn't sell. Slab coffee table, Conoid chair, pedestal table ... none sold. Nakashima is about as blue-chip an investment as it gets, so this turn of events was simply shocking. I think a herd mentality was taking place: no one bid on the first lot or two, and that scared everyone from bidding on the rest. I'll be curious to see what happens at the Rago fall sale in three weeks; Rago typically has by far the most robust Nakashima sales, and they have numerous good pieces available at the upcoming sale. If even Rago can't sell the stuff, we'll know there's a serious problem.
Following that was a litany of grade-A stuff that didn't sell, including a unique Paul Evans Cityscape dining table in a smoky metal I can't recall seeing before; a beautiful Ellsworth Kelly print; a rare Ron Arad flipping chair; then most of the Shiro Kumamata stuff failed to sell. (The lone exception: four beautiful small art pieces, with flowers and butterflies suspended inside a block of flawless glass. I was going to bid on them, but all sold for way above estimate.) Then there was a stupendous flop of some Hugh Newell Jacobsen pieces -- one out of 14 sold -- and flop after flop until the Prouve lots hit. Like Eames buyers, Prouve aficionados are a little fanatical, and all his work sold for well above estimate, except for one overpriced desk. More flops followed, then a rebound with the Arredoluce lamps, all of which went for premiums. After that, still more flops. Even a Wendell Castle piece failed to sell, and he's been hot shit in the auction world lately. In sum though, it was an unabashed disaster, but OTOH it came after the three most tumultuous weeks in American financial history since the Great Depression.
Steph and I bought some great stuff at good prices, however -- there were certainly bargains to be had -- and I look forward to getting them on the floor.